FED Rate Cuts: Where are we Headed?

In this episode, we discuss the recent Federal Reserve rate cut and its implications for the market and economy. The Fed reduced its overnight lending rate by half a percentage point, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. This was the first rate cut since March 2020, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. The Fed's dual mandate—maintaining price stability and maximizing employment—guides its decisions. With inflation largely under control, the Fed is now able to focus on adjusting rates to support employment without risking economic stability.

Ed explains that the current rate reduction is a strategic move, allowing the Fed flexibility to respond to future economic challenges. With rates still relatively high, the Fed has room to cut further if needed, but prefers a gradual approach to avoid destabilizing progress against inflation. He mentions the possibility of additional cuts later this year, barring any sudden spikes in inflation.

Alex highlights how the market has reacted to the Fed's actions, noting that price-to-earnings ratios and bond yields adjusted even before the official rate cut. This preemptive adjustment is common as markets tend to "price in" expected policy changes. However, he cautions that predicting future interest rates accurately is challenging, and the Fed's projections often diverge from reality.

We also explore the potential impact of these rate changes on the housing market. Higher interest rates have made borrowing more expensive, which affects home affordability. Many homeowners who refinanced at low rates may be reluctant to sell and take on a new mortgage at higher rates, constraining housing supply. Despite these challenges, Alex advises that personal financial decisions, such as purchasing a home, should be based on individual circumstances rather than solely on market conditions.

Overall, the episode emphasizes the importance of having a personalized, all-weather investment strategy that can withstand various economic scenarios. Rather than making reactive changes based on market fluctuations, maintaining a consistent and well-thought-out plan tailored to individual goals and risk tolerance is crucial.

You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190. Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/

Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536

Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne PA 19087 and can be reached at 484-395-2190.

Any rating is not intended to be an endorsement, or any way indicative of the advisors' abilities to provide investment advice or management. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users or members.