How could the Election Results Affect the Market?
In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we discuss how the markets responded to the certainty brought by the recent Presidential election and what history suggests about post-election market performance. While maintaining a nonpartisan lens, we explore the relationship between political outcomes and financial markets.
Ed starts by analyzing market movements in the week following the election. He highlights that the clear election outcome brought a sense of relief and stability to the markets, avoiding the prolonged uncertainty seen in prior cycles. This certainty spurred optimism, particularly around potential corporate tax extensions and reduced regulation, both of which are expected to support corporate profits. Financial stocks and small-cap U.S. stocks were notable outperformers, buoyed by deregulation hopes and domestic market focus, respectively. However, bonds and international stocks underperformed due to rising bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which hurt returns on foreign investments.
Alex then shifts the focus to historical trends, emphasizing that while markets typically perform well post-election, this is consistent with broader market behavior rather than directly attributable to election outcomes. He notes that since 1980, nine of 11 post-election years saw positive market returns, averaging 15.6%, higher than the overall market average. Yet, these gains often stem from broader economic conditions rather than the Presidency itself- correlation does not mean causation!
He reminds us that the stock market, like a nimble speedboat, can react quickly to news, whereas the economy, more akin to a massive aircraft carrier, changes direction only with significant events. Regardless of political shifts, long-term economic fundamentals, and corporate earnings drive market performance. Again, reactionary changes to investment strategies based solely on political outcomes are unwise.
The discussion closes with a look ahead, noting that volatility can increase under a new administration but isn’t guaranteed. Historical examples, such as the quiet markets of 2017 following Trump's first inauguration, illustrate the unpredictable nature of post-election market behavior.
Throughout, we stress the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term political or market fluctuations. For personalized guidance, Birch Run Financial invites listeners to reach out through their website or social media channels.
You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.
Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/
Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536
Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne PA 19087 and can be reached at 484-395-2190.
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