2024: Year in Review

In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we kick off 2025 by discussing the economic highlights of 2024 and what lies ahead for the U.S. economy and markets. Ed provides an economic overview, while Alex dives into financial market performance and predictions.

2024 saw significant progress in inflation reduction, with CPI falling from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to 2.8% by late 2024. While the Fed’s soft landing approach avoided recession and brought inflation closer to its 2% target, uncertainties like potential tariffs remain. GDP growth for 2024 ended on a strong note at 2.7%, and economists project continued growth in 2025, with estimates ranging from 2.1% to 2.4%. The labor market, though slightly looser than in previous years, remains robust, with unemployment at 4.1%, still below historical averages.

Interest rates, which peaked at 5.25% in mid-2023, were reduced incrementally to 4.25% by the end of 2024. While the Fed is not expected to cut rates further in early 2025, analysts predict additional rate reductions later this year, potentially lowering rates to around 3.25% by year-end.

Turning to the markets, 2024 was a stellar year for U.S. equities, driven largely by the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. The S&P 500 delivered an impressive 25% return, although most of this growth came from a small number of dominant stocks. In contrast, value stocks underperformed, returning 12.3%, while international stocks lagged with a modest 4.4% return. Other asset classes, including small and mid-cap stocks, bonds, and real estate, showed moderate gains. Gold, interestingly, mirrored the stock market’s strong performance, rising by 25.5%.

Looking ahead to 2025, major banks predict modest market growth, with the S&P 500 expected to yield returns of approximately 10%-12%. But despite a number of predictions - they are just that: predictions. And Alex shares what he and the team think about these predictions. They are speculative, and market behavior is inherently unpredictable. The key takeaway is to remain diversified, stick to a long-term financial plan, and avoid reactionary decisions based on short-term market volatility.

As always, staying prepared for market uncertainty while maintaining a balanced, goals-based strategy is critical for long-term success.

You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.

Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/

Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536

Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, and Jon Gay and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne PA 19087 and can be reached at 484-395-2190.

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