Chutes, Ladders, and a Recap of the First Half of 2025
In this mid-year episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we reflect on what 2025 has taught us about markets, economic conditions, and investor behavior. We're at the halfway mark of the year, and despite some rough patches, the financial landscape has shown surprising resilience. Alex kicks things off by detailing how the year began with a normal market correction followed by a sharp crash triggered by unexpected tariff announcements. Despite this, the S&P 500 has managed a modest gain of around 2.3% as of mid-June, largely powered by a few large tech and AI companies.
Economic growth in the U.S. has remained steady, albeit modest, defying some analysts’ recession predictions. Inflation has cooled significantly since its peak in 2022-2023, allowing the Fed to ease interest rates by 75 basis points. However, rate cuts have since paused as the Fed monitors inflation’s remaining pressure, particularly in housing and services.
We discuss how consumer sentiment is mixed. While spending continues, signs of fatigue are emerging amid ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the political landscape. International markets, particularly in Europe and emerging regions, have outperformed U.S. stocks slightly this year—marking a shift from the trend of U.S. dominance.
Within asset classes, small-cap and value stocks have underperformed, while bonds have been flat to slightly negative. Cash and money markets remain attractive for their yield, but their long-term return potential is limited. Real assets like gold have performed strongly, benefitting from trade-related fears.
We emphasize that major institutional investors have responded to market turbulence by rebalancing rather than making drastic shifts—a strategy we support for retail investors too. When volatility hits, buying low through rebalancing beats the temptation to time the market. Chasing hot sectors, like tech and AI, is risky and often leads to poor results.
Ed follows up with key takeaways. First, staying invested through volatility has paid off, reinforcing that time in the market beats timing it. Second, diversification remains essential, as relying on a few high-performing stocks can backfire. Finally, mindset is everything. Markets change fast, and the ability to remain disciplined and focused on long-term goals is critical to success. Whether it's Fed policy, geopolitical tensions, or surprise earnings, what matters most is how we respond—not how well we predict.
The markets have reinforced what we preach every episode. Have a plan, and don't give in to emotional or market temptation.
You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.
Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/
Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536
Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, and Jon Gay and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne PA 19087 and can be reached at 484-395-2190.
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