The Election and the Economy: 2024

Today, Alex Cabot and Ed Lambert from Birch Run Financial dive into the intersection of politics and financial markets, focusing on the upcoming election. We discuss widespread market myths and offer a data-driven approach to navigating political cycles as an investor.

Alex begins by addressing common misconceptions about election years and market volatility. Despite popular belief, election years do not inherently cause heightened volatility. Examining the past nine presidential elections, Alex highlights that only three were more volatile than average—2000, 2008, and 2020—events driven not by elections, but by major economic crises such as the tech bubble burst, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Another misconception Alex tackles is the belief that markets perform better under Republican administrations due to their perceived pro-business stance. Historical data shows that markets have actually done well under both Democratic and Republican presidencies. Staying invested throughout all political cycles, regardless of the party in power, yields better long-term results, as markets ultimately respond more to economic fundamentals than to political leadership.

Ed wraps up the discussion with an optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy. He emphasizes that, no matter the election outcome, the U.S. will continue to be the world’s dominant economic power. Key statistics reinforce this point: the U.S. GDP is currently 55% larger than China’s, and the country leads in energy production and technological innovation. He also points to the U.S.'s demographic advantages, including high immigration rates, which help sustain economic growth compared to other developed nations with aging populations.

The episode underscores the importance of remaining calm and focused on long-term financial goals, no matter the election results. The U.S. economy is resilient, and sound investment strategies should not be swayed by political fearmongering or short-term volatility.

You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.

Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/

Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536

Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne PA 19087 and can be reached at 484-395-2190.

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